Saturday Nov. 22
A fast-moving storm system is moving over the Sierra this morning but won’t bring much if any snow to areas below 7000 feet.
Snow levels were still at or above 8000 feet this morning, and while they will lower behind the cold front this afternoon, by then most of the moisture from this system will have moved to the east. Don;t expect more than a dusting below the major mountain passes.
Skies should begin clearing tonight and Sunday should be fair but still chilly behind the storm. A warming trend will begin Monday and last at least through Thanksgiving Day.
Friday Nov. 21
The third in a series of early season storms is due to hit the Sierra late tonight through Saturday. While this one will be the strongest of the three, it does not look like a major snow producer.
Rain and high elevation snow should begin late Friday and continue into Saturday, with snow levels around 8000 feet. Around half a foot is possible above 8000 feet, with not much below that. Snow levels should drop Saturday afternoon behind the cold front but by then most of the moisture will have moved east. We may not even see the dusting we were hoping for around the Lake. The biggest issue with this system will be the wind, with gusts of greater that 50 mph likely.
Sunday will be chilly and breezy in the wake of the storm before a warming trend that should last several days takes hold.
Thursday Nov. 20
The second of three fast-moving storm systems taking aim at Tahoe this week is moving into Northern California this morning and should reach the Sierra by this afternoon. This one will be a bit stronger than Wednesday’s system, and likely with slightly lower snow levels. The storm is forecast to leave about 3 or 4 inches of new snow above 7000 feet with a dusting possible around the Lake late today or tonight. Rain and snow should taper to showers tonight, and Friday will be mostly cloudy as we get a break between storms.
The third storm in this trio is due to arrive Friday night into Saturday. This system, while not much larger than the first two, will be better aligned in the kind of west-to-east trajectory that wrings more moisture out of a system as it crashes into the Sierra. But the focus of the storm will be near the California-Oregon border, which means Tahoe will sit on the warmer, southern boundary of the system. These two factors will likely combine to bring more precipitation but also higher snow levels than the first two storms in this series. The forecast is looking like an inch to 1.5 inches of rain, with snow levels fluctuating between 7000 and 8000 feet, with some snow possible below 7000 feet. Above 8000 feet we could still see significant accumulations of between 6 and 12 inches by Saturday night.
Sunday should be fair as the high pressure rebuilds for at least a few days.
The forecast models are in serious conflict at the moment for Thanksgiving Weekend, with more storms possible but far from dialed in as of now. Stay tuned for more details are they emerge.