State snow survey: 75% of average

The first snow survey of the season found the Tahoe snow depth and water content at about 75 percent of average for the end of December. The snow depth at Phillips Station near South Lake Tahoe was 38.5 inches. The water content was 9 inches. That’s discouraging given the steady series of storms we saw this month. We’re going to need more to avoid a fourth year of drought….Details in this AP story.

New Years Forecast: Snow

UPDATE 9:34 PM…..The leading edge of the storm arrived in Tahoe early this evening — in the form of light rain at 7000 feet on the north end of the region….It was still raining at 7000 feet as of 930p.m. This is a result of warm air advection ahead of the storm, so it’s still possible that once the Pacific moisture combines with the low pressure system from the Northwest we could see slightly lower snow levels. But either way this is going to be a sloppy storm, with the rain/snow level hovering at or just below 7000 feet. Fortunately, most of the energy from the storm is likely to stay north of Interstate 80. So most of the rain should stay up there as well. The NWS is still talking about a foot or more of new snow in the Northern Sierra by Saturday morning…..

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31, 5:39 AM …The New Year appears set to arrive Friday with a new storm. Actually, the next storm should be pushing its way into Tahoe by late this afternoon or tonight. A low pressure system off the coast of California is already moving inland this morning, bringing rain to the coastal mountains and as far inland as Redding. The storm is expected to bring snow to the Lassen and Plumas county regions by midday and sag toward Interstate-80 in the afternoon.

Most of Friday should be stormy in Tahoe, especially to the north and along the Sierra Crest. This is a warm storm tapping into some subtropical moisture, and snow levels will likely rise to 6,000 feet and toward 7,000 feet. That means the snow to water ratio will be low, limiting snow production. Accumulations will not be huge but will add a few more inches to our base: probably 6 to 12 inches between 6000 feet and 7000 feet and a bit more above 7,000 feet. Winds will be gusting toward 40 mph or 50 mph for part of the day Friday.

Once that storm exits on Saturday, a ridge of high pressure should keep the weather calm and the skies clearing into the weekend. A series of storms pushing through the Pacific Northwest will try to make it over the ridge but at this point they appear likely to bring Tahoe only some clouds and perhaps some light showers on Monday and maybe Thursday. The next real storm that looks possible in the forecast models is for the second weekend in January, but that’s too far out to bank on.

For now, stay safe on New Years Eve as this storm moves in, and enjoy the bluster on New Years Day. It might be a good one to stay inside and watch some football unless you are partial to warm storms, wind and wet snow….

Stay tuned for updates as this storm arrives.

Forecast Highs

Tahoe City

Thursday 38
Friday 41
Saturday 41

At 7000 feet

Thursday 36
Friday 34
Saturday 36

Regional radar with rain/snow mix:

Day 2 Precipitation Forecast, in inches of water content:

El Nino update: ending the year with a bang

The El Nino condition that has been present in the subtropical Pacific since last summer just keeps getting stronger, with sensors recording the greatest variation above average for sea surface temperatures this year in the final full week of December. Temperatures in the central sub-tropic region that is the key El Nino indicator rose another tick to 1.9 degrees Celsius above average. That’s well into the range considered a “strong” El Nino event if maintained for three consecutive months. Forecasters at the US Climate Prediction Center and elsewhere still expect the El Nino condition to bring greater than average precipitation to Southern California in the latter half of the winter, and below average precip in the Pacific Northwest. Tahoe sits between those two extremes and its weather will depend on how far north those big southern storms come. Typically, San Francisco, Sacramento and Tahoe get above average precipitation in a strong El Nino year.

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