Fresh snow and fair skies

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 28, 5:36 AM…..Skies should be clearing across Tahoe today and most of Monday ahead of the next storm heading our way from the Pacific. With 12 to 18 inches of fresh snow from the Friday/Saturday storm, today should be close to ideal on the slopes and in the backcountry. The only issue should be some possible fog in the mountain valleys. Temperatures will start out on the brisk side as north winds cool the region, but once a ridge of high pressure starts to build back in we should see a warmer day on Monday.

Winds should begin to pick up Monday night ahead of the next storm, which is due by Tuesday morning. This storm will likely arrive in two pulses, one burst of energy ahead of the cold front and then the core of the low pressure system on Wednesday. Snow levels will start out on the high side, though still probably below 6,000 feet, then plummet as the cold front arrives on Wednesday, probably down to 4,000 feet or below. With a decent moisture tap from the Pacific this system has the potential to deliver another foot or more of new snow to Tahoe, and perhaps twice that further south. This is Mammoth’s year, folks, with almost every storm drifting south as it arrives in California. But we are doing well right now and we’re about to get some more.

Thursday and Friday should be fair, but another storm is on the horizon for the weekend.

Stay tuned for details as the next storms approach.

Forecast Highs

Tahoe City

Sunday 41
Monday 50
Tuesday 43

At 7000 feet

Sunday 45
Monday 49
Tuesday 38

Regional radar with rain/snow mix:

Snow tapering to showers today

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 27, 5:56 AM…..Friday’s storm got a late start and snow levels stayed too high for too long, but once it started snowing it dumped pretty good. We’ve got about 10 inches at 7000 feet with more on the highest peaks and a little more to come. We just missed this one. The piece of the low that went south took another foot of snow with it. Mammoth has two feet of fresh since yesterday. Snow is already lightening up and we should see scattered snow showers through the morning, tapering off by afternoon. Another few inches are still possible in locations that are favored with heavier showers.

Sunday and Monday still look fair before the next storm comes in. Looks like we will get hit with a two-parter on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a quick pulse on Tuesday ahead of the low-pressure system sweeping down from the Gulf of Alaska and then the main part of the low on Wednesday. Combined they could be enough to get us another foot or so of new snow. Then another break and more snow possible for next weekend.

Hey, winter is back. Just when a lot of people were getting stoked for spring. Isn’t it always that way?

Stay tuned for details as the next storms approach.

Forecast Highs

Tahoe City

Saturday 38
Sunday 43
Monday 43

At 7000 feet

Saturday 34
Sunday 38
Sunday 45

Regional radar with rain/snow mix:

Snow tonight, Saturday

UPDATE 8:06 PM….A rain and snow mix at 7000 feet finally turned to snow late this afternoon, and just in time. Heavy showers have dumped several inches of snow since the changeover, and there is still more coming. But the storm is splitting as it crosses into California, with much of the energy going south. So it looks like the low-end forecast — 6 to 12 inches at 7000 feet — is going to be closer to the mark. We could see scattered snow showers into Saturday afternoon but most of the heavy snowfall should be over by daybreak. Sunday and Monday still look fair before the next storm arrives Tuesday.

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 26, 4:21 AM…A major winter storm is headed for California and the Sierra with the potential to dump one to two feet of snow at the highest elevations around Tahoe today and Saturday.

Even as the storm moves across the Northern California coast, however, forecast models are still not clear about exactly how it will cross the Sierra, its core temperature and snowfall potential. This is leading forecasters in Reno and Sacramento to take decidedly different views on the matter.

The Sacramento office of the NWS has issued a winter storm warning and sees this system coming straight across the Sierra with snow levels dropping to 4,000 feet, and delivering up to two feet of snow above 7,000 feet. The Reno office sees snow levels starting out above 7,000 feet due to warm air advection ahead of the storm, and forecasts the system to swing around to the south and approach Tahoe from a south to north direction. This would create a dynamic that would limit its ability to bring snow across the Sierra Crest and into the Tahoe Basin. The Reno office also notes that the storm appears to be splitting as it approaches, sending its best energy, and snow potential, to the south.

For the moment we will root for the Sacramento version but beware that the storm may not live up to the hype. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.

Either way the precip should begin in Tahoe by this afternoon, peak overnight and then taper off during the day on Saturday. Sunday and Monday look fair before another storm, this one definitely looking colder, approaches from the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday.

Stay tuned for details.

Forecast Highs

Tahoe City

Friday 41
Saturday 36
Sunday 41

At 7000 feet

Thursday 36
Friday 34
Saturday 40

Regional radar with rain/snow mix:

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