High winds, high clouds on Wednesday, but mostly dry

Nov. 28 2011

It’s beginning to look as if Tahoe is in for at least a moderately long dry spell that is going to last into early December.

The warming trend will continue through Tuesday, when it should be interrupted by a bit of a pattern change.

A low pressure system heading this way the middle of this week is now forecast to brush past us on Wednesday as it moves into Nevada and the Great Basin and then drifts back toward the southwest and Southern California. As it does so it is expected to bring some very windy conditions — gusts over 100 mph at the ridgetops and 50 mph at lake level are possible on Wednesday. But other than the winds and high clouds, precipitation will be limited, if we get any at all. The only possibility is for some snow showers coming from the east as the system moves south through Nevada.

Once that storms moves through, it looks as if the ridge of high pressure will build again over the west, shunting the storms to the north, into Canada and then down into the interior of the United States. Tahoe’s weather will be quiet, and mild, through next weekend.

Stay turned for updates.

Warming trend through Tuesday, then snow possible

Saturday Nov. 26

The rest of the Thanksgiving Weekend is shaping up to be mostly clear and warmer than normal in the Tahoe Basin.

A ridge of high pressure over the west is keeping storms to the north for now and allowing temperatures to rise to above normal for this time of year.

A trough moving south from the Pacific Northwest will weaken the ridge late Sunday, possibly bringing some high clouds to the region and a few showers north of Interstate 80. But the ridge will briefly rebuild, keeping temperatures mild through Tuesday. Look for highs in the high 50s around the lake and the low 50s at 7000 feet.

Things should begin to cool off by the middle of the week.

A cold front from the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to move south and across the Sierra by Wednesday. Three computer forecast models are currently in conflict about where the system will cross the mountains and thus how much, if any, precipitation we will see. One has the low tracking to our north and then into Nevada, bringing us cold temperatures on its backside but little precipitation. Another has it staying far off the coast as it moves south, again limiting our rain and snow. The third model, currently the favorite of NWS forecasters, has the low tracking right over the crest of the Sierra. This would offer the best chance of snow for Tahoe.

Stay tuned for details as that storm approaches.

Tahoe mostly dry for next week

Nov. 23 2011

Two storms that a week ago looked as if they were headed for Tahoe have now all but vanished in the forecast as a ridge of high pressure builds and prepare to shunt them north and south of Tahoe.

The first upper level trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning from the Gulf of Alaska. It should reach California by Thanksgiving Morning. But it will split in two as it approaches, and most of its energy will head south into Southern California. What remains will mostly go north into Oregon, with just some winds and high clouds reaching as far south as Tahoe. There’s a slight chance we could see some snow showers early Thursday morning near I-80, but if so, they will be brief and light. No significant accumulations are expected.

A second storm due Thursday night will also go to our north and is not expected to bring Tahoe anything more than cloud cover.

Once these systems move through the high pressure is forecast to really dig in. A low pressure system moving our way on Sunday will be, again, shunted to the north, and after that, the skies will be clear through at least Wednesday of next week.

Stay tuned for details.

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