Tease on Wednesday, then dry for a week or more

Tuesday Jan. 31 4:44 pm

Tahoe is in for a tease of a winter storm late tonight and Wednesday. A low pressure system passing mainly to our north will brush past the Tahoe Basin, bringing clouds, cooler temperatures and a chance of light snow to the area Wednesday morning. But there will be little if any accumulation, perhaps a couple of inches at best. And the sad thing is, this is as good as it gets for a while.

After this system moves through Wednesday afternoon, the Pacific ridge of high pressure will really dig in and become entrenched. As it does we will have a windy day, with gusts up to 75 mph over the Sierra Crest. Then it looks as if it will be strong enough to block any storms coming our way for at least the next week.

We’re probably looking at the second week of February before there’s a chance of another significant winter storm.

Stay tuned and we will let you know when there is a change in the pattern coming.

Warm weekend, light rain and snow possibly Monday

Saturday, Jan. 28 6 a.m.

We’re still expecting a rather warm weekend through Sunday before a low pressure system passing by to our north cools things down late Sunday into Monday. We’ll see some clouds and windy conditions from this system but very little, if any precipitation. We could get some light rain showers and high-elevation snow as far south as Highway 50, but no significant accumulations.

Another system is on track to move through Tuesday and Wednesday, but it, too, looks likely to stay mostly to our north. There’s still some conflict among the forecast models, but none of them show a significant storm event for Tahoe.

Once that system moves on by, it looks as if the high pressure will build again, bringing warmer days and clear skies toward the end of next week.

Still hoping for a pattern change by the second week of February, but as of now there are no major storms in the forecast.

Stay tuned.

Showers possible tonight, then a dry weekend

Thursday Jan. 26 6:02 am

A Pacific storm moving through Southern Oregon this morning is forecast to brush past the Northern Sierra on its way east this afternoon, bringing clouds, some wind and perhaps a slight chance of precipitation to areas as far south as Interstate 80. But snow levels will be rather high, at or above 7000 feet, and the moisture will be limited, so this system appears to be more of a nuisance for us than anything.

After that a ridge of high pressure will strengthen across the region, bringing another balmy, spring like weekend to the Tahoe Basin. Highs will be several degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday.

The ridge looks to flatten a bit late Sunday, with a storm system pushing its way inland by Monday. But the forecast models are in serious conflict about what happens next. One of the models shows the ridge holding tough and pushing that storm to the north, keeping Tahoe mostly clear and dry. Another model has the storm digging down the coast and bringing rain and snow to the region by Tuesday. But the weight of evidence at the moment, unfortunately, seems to favor the high pressure scenario, and another extended dry spell.

We are probably looking at the second week of February for the next chance of a major pattern change and some storms that could bring significant accumulation.

Stay tuned for updates.

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