Another mild, spring-like weekend is on tap for Tahoe, with highs close to 50 around the lake and in the 40s at 7000 feet.

A low pressure system out of the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to move down the coast Monday, but its ultimate track inland is still in doubt. The Euro forecast model is showing this storm staying out over the Pacific before drifting inland over Southern California. The GFS model shows it turning east further north, over the Sierra. But even under that scenario, the storm breaks up as it moves inland, promising only a couple of inches of snow as it crosses the mountains.

Whichever scenario develops, the system will have moved east by Wednesday, and the high pressure that’s been blocking everything coming our way from the Pacific is forecast to rebuild again. Once that transpires, there’s nothing fun in the forecast for about a week or so.

Stay tuned for details. We will be the first to let you know when something real is on the horizon.

Tahoe is in for a tease of a winter storm late tonight and Wednesday. A low pressure system passing mainly to our north will brush past the Tahoe Basin, bringing clouds, cooler temperatures and a chance of light snow to the area Wednesday morning. But there will be little if any accumulation, perhaps a couple of inches at best. And the sad thing is, this is as good as it gets for a while.

After this system moves through Wednesday afternoon, the Pacific ridge of high pressure will really dig in and become entrenched. As it does we will have a windy day, with gusts up to 75 mph over the Sierra Crest. Then it looks as if it will be strong enough to block any storms coming our way for at least the next week.

We’re probably looking at the second week of February before there’s a chance of another significant winter storm.

Stay tuned and we will let you know when there is a change in the pattern coming.

We’re still expecting a rather warm weekend through Sunday before a low pressure system passing by to our north cools things down late Sunday into Monday. We’ll see some clouds and windy conditions from this system but very little, if any precipitation. We could get some light rain showers and high-elevation snow as far south as Highway 50, but no significant accumulations.

Another system is on track to move through Tuesday and Wednesday, but it, too, looks likely to stay mostly to our north. There’s still some conflict among the forecast models, but none of them show a significant storm event for Tahoe.

Once that system moves on by, it looks as if the high pressure will build again, bringing warmer days and clear skies toward the end of next week.

Still hoping for a pattern change by the second week of February, but as of now there are no major storms in the forecast.

Stay tuned.

A Pacific storm moving through Southern Oregon this morning is forecast to brush past the Northern Sierra on its way east this afternoon, bringing clouds, some wind and perhaps a slight chance of precipitation to areas as far south as Interstate 80. But snow levels will be rather high, at or above 7000 feet, and the moisture will be limited, so this system appears to be more of a nuisance for us than anything.

After that a ridge of high pressure will strengthen across the region, bringing another balmy, spring like weekend to the Tahoe Basin. Highs will be several degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday.

The ridge looks to flatten a bit late Sunday, with a storm system pushing its way inland by Monday. But the forecast models are in serious conflict about what happens next. One of the models shows the ridge holding tough and pushing that storm to the north, keeping Tahoe mostly clear and dry. Another model has the storm digging down the coast and bringing rain and snow to the region by Tuesday. But the weight of evidence at the moment, unfortunately, seems to favor the high pressure scenario, and another extended dry spell.

We are probably looking at the second week of February for the next chance of a major pattern change and some storms that could bring significant accumulation.

Stay tuned for updates.

The storm that brought about two feet of new snow to Tahoe Sunday night and Monday has moved east, but skies today remain cloudy to partly cloudy over much of the area. Highs should be in the high 30s today at 7000 feet.

A ridge of high pressure building over the Pacific will be strong enough to keep at least the next couple of storms to our north, but the tails ends are going to brush past Tahoe and bring us clouds and, in their wake, some north winds. A storm on Thursday could slip a little further south and bring some light showers as far south as Interstate 80 but not much further.

The ridge is forecast to strengthen later in the week, keeping skies clearer and temperatures warmer as we head into the weekend.

Stay tuned for updates.

Winter’s here. But will it soon be gone, again?

The third in a series of three winter storms that have finally ushered in winter to Tahoe is clinging to the Sierra Crest this morning. The storm brought 18 to 24 inches of new snow overnight and snow showers through this morning should push those totals up another 4 to 6 inches. It looks like areas south of Tahoe might get the best of the rest as this storm is still carrying a decent amount of moisture that way. By tonight skies should be clearing.

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild off the California coast, once again sending storms off the Pacific on a line north of Tahoe and then into the Great Basin in Nevada. Two storms moving through Oregon this week will only brush past us, perhaps bringing a few clouds and breezy conditions but no precipitation.

Temperatures will warm again, bringing spring like conditions to the region by mid week.

The next chance for snow will be the weekend, when an “inside slider” could move down the east side of the Cascades into Nevada, clipping Tahoe with its backside. But even that one looks doubtful at the moment.

So we are back in the wait and see mode, waiting for that ridge to weaken again. It’s not likely to sit there for another two months as it did earlier. The long range models have been showing more precipitation by early February.

Stay tuned.

It’s on, Tahoe.

The third in a series of winter storms to sweep through the Sierra is on track for arrival later today, and it looks like a beauty.

This system is tapping into enough moisture to drop more than an inch of water-content precipitation above 5000 feet and perhaps two inches at the Sierra Crest by noon Monday. With colder temperatures and decent snow-to-water ratios, that should translate into around a foot of snow at the Lake and up to two feet above 7000 feet.

Temperatures will not be super cold, but they will be colder than with Friday’s storm, fortunately. Look for lows in the low 20s tonight and highs in the mid-20s at 7000 feet Monday. Snow levels will be around 4,500 feet to 5,000 feet on the western slope throughout the event.

Snow is forecast to taper to snow showers on Monday as this system moves east.

Two more waves out of the Northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday are on track to miss Tahoe as they skirt by to our north, so the rest of the week looks pretty dry.

But after this storm, it should at least look, and feel, like winter for a while.

Finally.

It’s snowing in Tahoe.

Snow levels starting dropping last night and the rain finally changed to snow at 7000 feet around midnight. The resorts with bases around 7000 feet received about 4 inches of snow overnight. Up top, it looks like we probably did get in the neighborhood of two feet of snow above 8500 feet. We should see one more burst of snow this morning before the storm tapers to showers as it moves east. Most of the precip should be done by later this afternoon.

Sunday morning looks like a bluebird morning, though the conditions on the slopes, even at the higher elevations, are going to be pretty sticky.

The third storm in the series is still due to arrive Sunday night, but it’s been downgraded. It will be colder, so snow levels should not be a problem. But it is not carrying much moisture. At best we are looking at perhaps a foot above 7000 feet, but somewhere between six and 12 inches is more likely by Monday morning.

After that the ridge of high pressure begins to build again and temperatures will be rising. By mid week, unfortunately, we will be back to spring conditions.

Enjoy it while you can.

The second and biggest storm in this three-storm series is moving into the Tahoe region this afternoon, and early reports suggest that snow levels will be even higher than feared. It looks like snow levels will start out well above 8000 feet and not begin to fall until after midnight. They may not drop to 7000 feet until nearly daybreak. While we should still see plenty of wet heavy snow (two to three feet) above 8000 feet, the higher snow levels will limit accumulations below 7000 feet on Saturday, since the best moisture will already have moved through before it starts snowing below the mountain passes. The one wildcard is that the snow will be so heavy overnight that it might create its own weather, bringing temperatures down and causing fluctuations of several hundred to 1000 feet in the snow levels. But that won’t change the bottom line: this is going to be a very wet, relatively warm storm, and the snow that does fall is going to be heavy and sticky. As we say, though, “that’s good for the base.”

Jan 20 2012

The first in a series of three winter storms is still moving its way through the Sierra this morning, but snow levels have risen above 7000 feet around most of the Tahoe Basin, melting some of the light snow that fell Thursday night. We should see scattered showers through the day as the second and much bigger storm takes shape for tonight.

The second system will also start out warm, keeping snow levels around 6500 to 7000 feet at first, before dropping overnight. Once the snow levels drop tonight, we shouldn’t be seeing any more rain in Tahoe for the rest of the weekend. This system has the potential to drop three or four inches of water-equivalent precipitation along the Sierra Crest by Saturday, and about half that along the lake. That means we should see two to three feet of snow above 8000 feet, and maybe a foot along the Lake by the time this system departs Saturday afternoon or evening. The heaviest snowfall will be after midnight tonight through Saturday morning. Snowfall rates could range between 2 to 4 inches per hour for several hours.

After a short break on Sunday the forecast is calling for a third, colder storm late Sunday into Monday. That storm could give us another 10 to 12 inches of snow above 7000 feet and 4 to 6 inches below the mountain passes.

Stay tuned for details as these storms develop.

Remember winter?

It’s finally about to start, folks.

The leading edge of the first in a series of storms is moving into Oregon and far Northern California this morning. This system will mainly affect the Cascades and the far Northern Sierra, where a few inches of snow are possible.

The next system is due Thursday and should reach Tahoe by Thursday afternoon.

Snow levels will start out around 7000 feet before falling Thursday night.

It looks like this wave has the potential to drop about six inches of snow on the higher elevations and an inch or two around the lake by Friday morning.

After a short lull, the biggest and warmest storm in this series is on track for a Friday arrival. Snow levels will likely rise again as the warm Pacific moisture plume pushes in ahead of the cold air from the north. At first we will probably see rain below about 7500 feet. But snow levels should drop by Saturday morning as the front moves through, and that should be soon enough to deposit several more inches of snow around the lake. Above 7500 or 8000 feet we should see a total of about two feet from these first two storms.

After another break a third storm is due on Sunday. The forecast models are still in conflict about the timing. Some models show the next storm arriving late Saturday or early Sunday, and others not until later on Sunday. Either way it will be the coldest of the bunch, and it looks like it has the potential to give us at least a foot of snow at Lake level and a bit more above the mountain passes.

Beyond that things are murkier. One forecast model shows a ridge of high pressure building and the start of a drying trend, while another leaves the storm door open for at least another day or two.

But for now let’s focus on what seems likely: at least two to three feet of snow above 8000 feet, with a foot or snow below the mountain passes. That might be a bit on the conservative side. But we don’t want to oversell this and be disappointed if the big snow totals fail to materialize.

Have fun. Be safe.

Stay tuned for more details as the week unfolds.