Tahoe Weather Geek
Tuesday Jan. 27
A weak low pressure system moving north from off the coast of Baja California will pass through the Central and Northern Sierra today, bringing light rain and a bit of high-elevation snow to the Tahoe Basin.
Snow levels are looking a bit lower in the latest forecast models, with snow possible down to about the shore of Lake Tahoe. But accumulations, if any, will be very light at that level, with maybe an inch of snow possible. Higher up, above 7000 feet, we could see three or four inches of wet snow by the end of the day. Snow totals are likely to be higher in the southern part of the Tahoe Basin than in the north.
A second wave of moisture on Wednesday appears likely to remain mostly south of Tahoe, and chances of precipitation later in the week appear to be fading.
An area of high pressure is forecast to rebuild by the weekend, ushering in a slow return to warmer temperatures.
Monday Jan. 26
The ridge of high pressure that has kept Tahoe dry this month is shifting east today, opening the door to a chance of storms from the Pacific. Unfortunately the only activity over the ocean at the moment is a weak low pressure system stirring off of Baja California. That system is moving north today but will not change our weather outlook very much.
Look for clouds and continued warm temperatures today, with a chance of light rain and high elevation snow on Tuesday. This system is going to cross the Sierra south of Tahoe as it heads into Northern Nevada, so we will only get a brush from its moisture. That could mean a few sprinkles below 7000 feet and perhaps an inch or two of snow above 7000 feet. The showers should end by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
Another system out of the south is forecast to move north later in the week, but that one looks like it will take an even more southerly trajectory, probably missing Tahoe entirely.
Then the high pressure will build again, bringing another warming trend for the weekend.
There are no major storms on the horizon.
Thursday Jan. 22
The outlook for the next ten days is not good for winter in the Tahoe Basin.
An area of high pressure over the west coast will continue to dictate Tahoe’s weather for the next several days, through the weekend at least.
A couple of waves of energy will move over the ridge late this week, keeping skies partly cloudy and temperatures around the Lake in the high 40s. We could see some brisk north and northeast winds Friday and Saturday. But as the high pressure strengthens over the weekend look for skies to clear and highs to return to the 50s, perhaps the high 50s in some places around Tahoe.
The high pressure is forecast to drift inland early next week, opening the door a bit to a trough moving north along the coast. There’s a chance of light rain and high elevation snow in the Sierra Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, with snow levels above 7000 feet.
There are no major storms in the outlook for the remainder of January.
Monday Jan. 19
An area of high pressure over the west will persist through this week at least, deflecting any potential weather to the north and into the Pacific Northwest.
A northeast flow will bring cooler but still seasonably warm temperatures during the middle of the week, but a warming trend is expected to return toward the end of the work week. We could see temperatures in the 50s again by next weekend.
As of now there is no sign of when the high pressure blockade will lift or shift to allow the storm door to re-open.