Tahoe Weather Geek
Friday Nov. 28
Rain and snow are still heading for Tahoe this weekend and into next week, but the timing and intensity of the storms are in flux as an area of low pressure off the coast sends moisture our way.
The first system should arrive late tonight and Saturday and has the potential to deliver about 6 to 10 inches of snow above 7000 feet by Sunday. There will be a couple of pulses, the first tonight and the second on Sunday. In between we will likely see scattered showers. Snow levels will be a little lower as we go, starting between 6000 and 7000 feet and then dropping to below 6000 feet Sunday. We could see a few inches of accumulation around the Lake.
The main low is now forecast to arrive later, Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow levels will rise again to above 6000 feet and accumulations will probably be less than the forecast was suggesting a few days ago. It now looks like we can expect about 6 inches of snow with this system.
Wednesday Nov. 26
A pair of storms on track to sweep through the Sierra after Thanksgiving promise to keep Tahoe’s weather unsettled through the holiday weekend, but the biggest impact might not be felt until early next week.
A ridge of high pressure over the west will keep Tahoe dry and unseasonably warm through Friday, with highs in the 50s.
But as that ridge moves east, an area of low pressure off the Pacific will send two waves of precipitation our way.
The first system looks to be light, and centered mostly north of Tahoe. It is on track to reach the Sierra by late Friday or early Saturday, with snow levels near 7000 feet. Tahoe will see an increase in cloud cover and perhaps some drizzle and light snow but no serious accumulations.
The main low will remain stationed off the coast through at least Sunday, and the forecast models are in conflict on exactly when it will move inland. That could be any time between late Sunday and Tuesday, with the best bet as of now still looking like some time Monday. That storm has the potential to bring between an inch and two inches of moisture to the Sierra, which would translate into a foot or more of snow above 7000 feet around Tahoe. We could see several inches of snow around the Lake by Tuesday morning with snow levels lowering to around 5000 feet.
The details on the second’s storm’s arrival and its punch will likely change as the weekend progresses and the models firm up on the most likely scenario.
Tuesday Nov. 25
A balmy Thanksgiving will give way to a stormy holiday weekend in the Tahoe Basin.
A ridge of high pressure over the west is bringing a warming trend to the region, with highs in the 50s expected to continue through Thanksgiving.
But the ridge is slowly moving east, and as it does it will open the door to a couple of storms that should bring rain and snow to the area over the weekend.
The first system is due late Friday night or early Saturday, with precipitation forecast to be about half an inch of water, which should translate into a few inches of snow at the higher elevations. Snow levels will likely remain above 6500 feet.
Showers are forecast to continue through the day Saturday and the weather should remain unsettled into Sunday. The parent low pressure system that will be parked off the coast is then due to move inland late Sunday or Monday. Early forecast models are suggesting that this system could bring a foot or more of snow to the Tahoe region by Tuesday. But it is still too early to bank on that.
We will be keeping our eye on the models and posting updates here so stay tuned.
Monday Nov. 24
Thanksgiving Week will begin in Tahoe with clear skies and warm temperatures, but the week could end with rain and snow for the region.
A ridge of high pressure over the Pacific will slowly move east this week. As it does, it will bring warmer temperatures to the Tahoe Basin, at least through Thanksgiving Day. But as the ridge slides further east the shift will open the door to storms moving across the Pacific.
An area of low pressure is forecast to set up off the coast by Friday, sending precipitation into the Sierra by Saturday. The current forecast is calling for only high-elevation snow Saturday with the possibility of cooler temperatures and lower snow levels by Sunday, and snow possible down to the Lake by Monday. All of this is preliminary, and the details will likely change over the next several days.
Stay tuned and we will let you know as things take shape.