Tahoe Weather Geek
Monday Oct. 20
Another modest cold front is moving into Northern California this morning, bringing light rain to the coast and the coastal mountains and soon to much of Northern California.
The system is expected to reach the Northern Sierra this afternoon, with between a quarter-inch and a half-inch of precipitation possible by Tuesday morning. Most of the rain will fall north of Interstate 80 but there’s a decent chance of some showers south of there in the Tahoe Basin and along the Sierra Crest. Snow levels should be above 7000 feet.
Tuesday will be cool behind the front but temps will rebound Wednesday and should remain at or above normal for a day or two.
Another, potentially larger storm system is taking aim at Tahoe and the Sierra later in the week.
This low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest and Oregon as early as Wednesday night, but the first wave of precipitation looks like it will be confined to the far Northern Sierra. By Friday or early Saturday the forecast calls for the system to sag southward, bringing rain and high elevation snow to the Central Valley of California and the Tahoe Basin.
We’ll keep you posted on the details as they develop.
Sunday Oct. 19
Another modest early season storm is taking aim at Northern California today and should arrive by midday Monday. Winds should pick up late today and early Monday in advance of the storm, with gusts around 50 mph possible.
The forecast is calling for between a quarter-inch and a half-inch of precipitation along the Sierra Crest, with lesser amounts likely around the Lake.
Snow levels should hover above 7000 feet with only light accumulations possible.
The front is expected to move through late Monday or early Tuesday, and we will see a return to warmer conditions by mid-week.
The outlook for next weekend is in some conflict at the moment, with one forecast model showing another low pressure system moving through the Sierra and another suggesting that the high pressure will push that storm to the north.
We’ll keep an eye on it and update you here.
Thursday Oct. 16
It’s only mid October but already this year is starting to sound a lot like 2013:
A trough over the Northern Pacific sends waves of moisture toward the California coast. But a ridge of high pressure blocks the fronts and sends them north, into the Pacific Northwest and Canada before they descend over the Rockies or the Great Plains.
That is what happened for much of last year. And it is happening again this week.
With Wednesday’s light rain having moved east, another little system is gearing up to bash against the high pressure ridge on Friday. That storm looks to split in two, with most of the moisture going to the north and a little piece of the storm cutting off and moving south. Tahoe will most likely get little or no precipitation.
Another storm that until yesterday looked more potent is due on Monday. But it, too, now is forecast to weaken and break apart as it hits the ridge. This storm looks like it could still produce around .25 inches of precipitation for the Tahoe Basin late Monday into Tuesday with snow levels around 7000 feet.
Each of these storms will be preceded by periods of high winds, with gusts around 50 mph.
Another chance for some real weather will come Thursday, a week from today.
Wednesday Oct. 15
The first of several troughs of low pressure spinning out of a deep low in the Gulf of Alaska is moving through the Sierra Nevada this morning but bringing little more than high winds, clouds and cooler temperatures.
Winds should subside this morning but gusts of around 50 mph are still possible.
The storm has generated some light rain and high elevation snow north of Tahoe but so far the Tahoe Basin has been mostly dry. We might still see a few showers and snow flurries as low as 7000 to 7500 feet this morning before the system moves through.
Another, similar low is due to reach the Sierra late Friday night but will split apart as it bangs up against a ridge of high pressure over the west, with any precip again likely to fall in far Northern California.
After a weekend warm up yet another low is in line to reach California by Monday. With the axis of the high pressure ridge shifting east, there might be room for the Monday storm to push into the Sierra with greater force, possible bringing some measurable precipitation to the region.
Stay tuned for more details.