Tahoe Weather Geek
Tuesday Feb. 17
A ridge of high pressure over the west coast will keep the Sierra and the Tahoe Basin dry and unseasonably warm through the rest of this week.
Toward the end of the week, the high pressure is forecast to shift north and west, toward the Gulf of Alaska.
As it moves, this should open the door to cold air from the Northeast to filter into the Sierra from the the backside. By Saturday, high temperatures should be considerably cooler, around normal for this time of year. As a low pressure system drops into Nevada, we could see some snow showers in the Central and Northern Sierra. Major accumulations seem unlikely at this point, but a change in the balmy pattern of late seems very likely…
Thursday Feb. 12
An area of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep skies mostly clear and temperatures unseasonably warm in the Tahoe Basin through at least Saturday. We might see some record high temperatures Friday and Saturday.
The high is expected to shift a bit to the north and west, toward the Gulf of Alaska, around Sunday. This will allow colder air from the north and east to drift toward the Sierra from the eastern side. That shift should bring a cooling trend by Monday and into next week.
‘But in the short term, at least, the high pressure will not move far enough to open the door to more Pacific storms.
There’s no major weather in the forecast through the middle of next week.
Tuesday Feb. 10
An area of high pressure is building across the west this week, and with it will come mostly clear skies, light winds and warm temperatures. By the weekend we could see a return to highs int he 50s and even the low 60s around the Tahoe Basin.
Forecast models show the ridge retreating into the Gulf of Alaska early next week. At a minimum, this should pull colder air from Canada and the central US west, toward the Sierra. That should spell an end to the warming trend.
The question though is whether any precipitation will also move into the region. Some of the models are showing the ridge far nough out of the way to allow some Pacific storms to make their way into the Sierra. At least one of the models isn’t showing that, but instead has the high pressure remaining in a position where it can block oncoming storms.
We will have to wait at least another day or two to get a fix on which way things are likely to go.
Sunday Feb. 8
The second of two warm winter storms to break our long dry spell is moving across the Northern California coast this morning and should reach the Sierra by midday.
This storm is slightly colder than the first one and is packing the potential to deliver an inch or two of liquid-equivalent precipitation. Unlike the first storm, which started as snow and then turned to rain, this one should do the opposite.
Look for snow levels to start on the high side — between 7000 and 8000 feet, then drop to around 7000 feet later in the day. Snow levels are expected to drop to near 6000 feet overnight into Monday morning.
By Monday night we might see 6 to 12 inches of snow around 7000 feet with higher amounts at 8000 feet.
Skies should be clearing by Tuesday as an area of high pressure buidls across the west and a warming trend takes hold for most of the week.