Tahoe Weather Geek
Sunday Nov. 17
Chances of high-elevation snow this week in the Tahoe Basin have improved in the latest computer forecast model runs.
It is beginning to look like we will get a one-two punch of moisture tapping into a sub-tropical plume.
The first should arrive late Monday or Tuesday and snow levels will likely be above 6000 feet, with several inches of wet snow possible above 7000 feet on Tuesday. The Northern Sierra and the Lassen region could see a foot of snow from this storm. Snow levels in Tahoe could drop down to lake level late Tuesday, but by then most of the moisture will have departed.
A second system, perhaps a little bit colder and a little stronger, is possible for Wednesday. But the trajectory of this system is still in doubt, with one model showing it drifting off the coast for a day or two.
UPDATE: As for snow levels, it now looks as if they will start out Tuesday around 6000 despite the warm subtropical moisture, due to lingering cold and dry air around the basin. But as the warm air invades, we are likely to see those levels climb above 7000 feet, perhaps near 8000 feet by Wednesday. Then when the next wave comes in Wednesday night or Thursday snow levels will probably drop a bit, perhaps as low as 6K or 6500 feet. More soon…
Stay turned for more details as they develop!
Saturday Nov. 16
After a chilly and blustery — but likely dry — weekend, the big picture weather pattern for Tahoe looks set to change early next week. But you won’t necessarily like the result.
Computer forecast models show that the ridge of high pressure that’s been keeping us dry for most of the fall could be breaking down by Monday or Tuesday.
Coupled with the arrival of a sub-tropical jet, this could mean a couple of bursts of precipitation for the Sierra between Tuesday and Thursday, especially in the Northern Sierra.
Unfortunately, the warm sub-tropical flow will also mean relatively high snow levels, so we could see mostly rain showers below 7000 feet.
About the best we can say for this development is that at least the storm door is opening.
Now we just need to combine some cold air from the north with that moisture from the south and we will be in business.
No sign of that happening anytime soon, at the moment.
We’ll keep you posted.
Thursday Nov. 14
Two low-pressure systems heading out of the Gulf of Alaska, through the Pacific Northwest and on into the Great Basin of Nevada will bring winds and colder temperatures to the Tahoe region for the next several days.
The first system is moving through the Northwest today and we should see some winds as a result, with gusts reaching 30 to 40 mph around the Lake this afternoon. Temperatures will dip back into the 50s today as colder air from the north begins ot filter into the area. This system will pass into Nevada overnight, bringing a slight chance of light rain and snow flurries to the Northern Sierra. But it looks as if most of the storm’s limited moisture will remain east of Reno.
A second, slightly more potent system is on track to pass through the region on Saturday. This will likely drive afternoon highs even lower, but again, the system will be an “inside slider” moving south along the eastern edge of the Cascades and the Sierra. That means any precipitation in Tahoe will be quite limited, with perhaps a few flurries or scattered snow showers on Saturday. Highs around the lake will be in the 40s on Friday and Saturday.
By Sunday a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the west, bringing a slow return to more mild temperatures, at least for a day or two.
Still no big storms on the horizon.
Wednesday Nov. 13
A period of unseasonably mild fall weather in the Tahoe Basin is set to end over the next couple of days, and a few days of cold, blustery weather with light rain and snow possible will be the pattern through the weekend.
A low pressure system is on track to dive down the eastern side of the Cascades and the Northern Sierra Thursday, bringing colder temperatures to the region. It looks as if any precipitation from this system will remain east of Tahoe as the storm moves into the Rockies on Friday.
A second storm is forecast to follow right behind the departing system, arriving in far Northern California late Friday night or Saturday morning. This one is expected to be a little stronger and track closer to Tahoe, but we’re still not expecting more than light accumulations on Saturday. The heaviest impacts are likely to remain north of Interstate 80.
That system is expected to depart by Sunday, with temperatures warming 5 to 10 degrees around the Basin.