Tahoe Weather Geek
Friday Feb. 20
A cold but fairly dry low pressure system moving south from Canada along the eastern edge of the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada is still on track to reach the Tahoe Basin by Saturday.
The latest forecast models are showing the system drifting further west, which is good news for snow-watchers, and possibly even pulling in a bit of Pacific moisture as it moves through California.
The outlook is still for fairly light and scattered showers, focused more to the south of the Tahoe Basin. But with the cold Canadian air expected snow levels will be drop fairly quickly, and with the possibility of a bit more precipitation, we could see at least some modest accumulations Saturday into Sunday.
It still looks as if the high pressure will briefly rebuild next week before a more typical Pacific storm sweeps into the Northwest and possibly Northern California toward the end of next week. And beyond that, the outlook is slightly more bullish for at least a short period of cooler, wetter weather — winter, in other words. We can only hope…
Thursday Feb. 19
After another dry, warm week, a modest change in the weather is in store for the Tahoe Basin this weekend.
The ridge of high pressure that’s been blocking our storms is forecast to shift west and north, closer to the Gulf of Alaska, by Friday or Saturday.
This will allow cold air, and a low-pressure system, to move in behind the ridge, dropping from Canada into Nevada and the Great Basin. By Saturday high temperatures should return to normal for this time of year, in the low 40s around the lake. Sunday should be even cooler, with highs in the 30s as the low pressure system moves into Southern Nevada. Cold, northeast winds are also likely.
This system will be low on moisture after its trek across inland Canada and the northern US, but depending on its final trajectory, it could bring some scattered snow showers to the Central Sierra Saturday and Sunday. Snow levels should be quite low with the cold air in place, but accumulations are likely to be scant.
Once that system departs to the southeast, temperatures are expected to rise again to near-normal, and a more typical northwest flow aloft is in the forecast for later in the week. This flow is expected to bring a low-pressure system into the Pacific Northwest and might bring a return of rain and snow to Northern California by next weekend.
Tuesday Feb. 17
A ridge of high pressure over the west coast will keep the Sierra and the Tahoe Basin dry and unseasonably warm through the rest of this week.
Toward the end of the week, the high pressure is forecast to shift north and west, toward the Gulf of Alaska.
As it moves, this should open the door to cold air from the Northeast to filter into the Sierra from the the backside. By Saturday, high temperatures should be considerably cooler, around normal for this time of year. As a low pressure system drops into Nevada, we could see some snow showers in the Central and Northern Sierra. Major accumulations seem unlikely at this point, but a change in the balmy pattern of late seems very likely…
Thursday Feb. 12
An area of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep skies mostly clear and temperatures unseasonably warm in the Tahoe Basin through at least Saturday. We might see some record high temperatures Friday and Saturday.
The high is expected to shift a bit to the north and west, toward the Gulf of Alaska, around Sunday. This will allow colder air from the north and east to drift toward the Sierra from the eastern side. That shift should bring a cooling trend by Monday and into next week.
‘But in the short term, at least, the high pressure will not move far enough to open the door to more Pacific storms.
There’s no major weather in the forecast through the middle of next week.