Tahoe Weather Geek
Fall is upon us and the Geek is back with an eye on the sky and the upcoming winter season.
We hope you all had a great summer.
As we’ve reported in our newsletter, the forecasts for a strong El Nino that were floating around in the spring have faded, and while there is still hope for a moderate effect from above average temperatures in the Pacific, any El Nino we see this winter will not be strong enough to lead to a prediction of heavier than usual precipitation. So at this point the best crystal balls in the business are expecting an average winter, which really means it could be anything from very dry to very wet. We will just have to take it week to week and month to month and see how it pans out.
In the meantime a cold front is moving its way toward California and is expected to arrive on the coast by mid-week and in the Sierra by Thursday. Some light precipitation, mainly north of I-80, looks likely around Thursday or Friday, with snow levels above 8000 feet.
After that, two of the forecast models differ on how long the system will hang around once the front moves through. One of the models is showing a quick moving system that would leave us a dry weekend and temperatures rebounding a bit. Another model shows a lot of activity in the Tahoe area behind the front, with precipitation possible into the weekend.
We will keep our eye on the various scenarios and update you here about which one moves to the fore as the week unfolds.
Thursday June 12
Gusty winds will continue in the Tahoe Basin today and Friday as a low pressure system moving through the Pacific Northwest creates a strong pressure gradient sucking dry air from the southwest into the region. Winds of 30 mph to 40 mph along the Sierra front are likely with gusts possibly approaching 50 mph.
The winds are forecast to weaken over the weekend as temperatures cool off to seasonal highs for this time of year.
A backdoor cold front is expected to move through Nevada on Monday or Tuesday, bringing even cooler temperatures to the Sierra, with highs in the 60s in the Sierra.
Thursday May 29
A mild weekend is on tap for Tahoe and the rest of the Sierra, with a chance of some isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Two areas of low pressure — one off the California coast and another off the coast of Washington — will affect our weather during the coming days.
The main effect of this will be some breezy conditions, especially in the afternoons, with winds out of the west.
Showers and thunderstorms should generally remain north of Tahoe through Saturday, probably in the far northern Sierra and western Nevada.
By Sunday as the low out of Washington begins to sag south, we could see an increased chance of thunderstorms closer to Tahoe, with chances increasing even more into Monday and Tuesday.
Thursday May 22
An area of low pressure that brought moisture and thunderstorms to the central Sierra this week is moving to the southeast today, leaving dry and warmer conditions in its wake.
Temperatures in the Tahoe Basin should be on the rise through the holiday weekend as a region of high pressure over the western US ushers in another warming trend.
By Friday and Saturday look for highs in the 80s in the foothills and the 70s in the Sierra, about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Although there will be far less moisture aloft this weekend than we have been seeing, there will remain a chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Crest in the afternoons.
By Monday another low pressure system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest, and that should mean a break in the warming trend and some gusty winds for the Tahoe Basin. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday as the trough moves inland.